Evaluación del riesgo de quiebra en empresas del sector de consumo masivo y comercio minorista de Perú (2009 - 2023) mediante la aplicación del modelo de Springate

Pablo Amado Vásquez Espinoza

doi:10.22451/5817.ibj2026.vol10.1.11012

Authors

Pablo Amado Vásquez Espinoza Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann, Tacna, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7286-6984

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22451/5817.ibj2026.vol10.1.11012

Abstract

This research aimed to assess the ability of the Springate model to identify insolvency risk in Peruvian companies linked to mass consumption and retail trade during the 2009-2023 period. The study followed a quantitative approach, with a non-experimental, longitudinal, and retrospective design. A total of 165 financial observations from 11 companies registered with the Peruvian Securities Market Superintendency were analyzed. The data were processed through documentary analysis, descriptive statistics, and binary logistic regression. The results showed that the Springate model had a statistically significant relationship with bankruptcy risk classification, with a negative coefficient indicating that higher Springate scores are associated with a lower probability of insolvency. The model also reached a Nagelkerke R square of 0.866, showing high explanatory capacity within the analyzed sample. However, when inflation and GDP growth were included in the extended model, these macroeconomic variables did not reach statistical significance; therefore, their effects should be interpreted cautiously. It is concluded that the Springate model is a useful early warning tool for corporate financial analysis, although its application should be complemented with external indicators and sector-specific criteria to avoid mechanical or overfitted interpretations.

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Author Biography

Pablo Amado Vásquez Espinoza, Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann, Tacna, Perú

Master of Business Administration (MBA), Certified Public Accountant (License No. 13-539), 42 years old, with 20 years of experience and expertise in accounting, auditing, taxation, banking, finance, strategic planning, budgeting, parliamentary procedures, foreign trade, and research. I possess strong communication skills, a proactive attitude, a sense of responsibility, honesty, creativity, and the ability to work well in a team, which allows me to align my professional goals with those of the organizations where I work.

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